WASHINGTON — The No Kings Day protests against Donald Trump drew at least 4 million people across the nation, perhaps 6 million, according to independent data journalist Elliott Morris. That would make it one of the largest public events in U.S. history, exceeded perhaps only by 20 million at the first Earth Day in 1970. Morris acknowledged that a precise No Kings Day crowd count is elusive with events having been at 2,100 scattered sites. Hence, he said, his data extrapolations could not be more precise than 4 to 6 million. In any event, Morris said the participation by his measurement was huge — 1.2% to 1.8% of the U.S. population. Scholars on protest movements said the scope of No Kings Day participation could represent a turning point in political history.
A multiplier to access impact
Over the years these scholars have developed what they call a 3.5 Rule. In an interview with the British newspaper the Guardian, political scientist Omar Wasow of the University of California-Berkeley explained the 3.5 Rule this way: “We see a cascade effect: If one person stands after the curtain drops, then more follow. If 1.8% of the US adult population showed up to protest on Saturday, those are the people who stood up to clap first. It sends a signal to all these other people that you can stand up too.” Wasow called No Kings Day “the largest single-day protests in history.” He distinguished No Kings Day from Earth Days, which are more positive in their thrust than the negative No Kings Day.
Delusional Trump
Pressed by reporters for his reaction to No Kings Day, Trump was dismissive. The President made a tangential if not irrelevant reference to being elected in November 2204 by, he said, the widest margin in history. Fact: Trump won narrowly 49.81% to 48.34%. Responding further to the reporter’s question, Trump dismissed the No Kings Day events by asserting that participants were paid to attend. He offered no evidence for the claim. Further, he said, protesters were bused to demonstration sites. Extensive video news coverage demonstrations showed no buses. In line with Trump’s delusional claims, his communications director at the White House, Steven Cheung, called the protests “a complete and utter failure with miniscule attendance.” Meanwhile, a Washington parade marking Trump’s 79th birthday, drew a paltry 16,000 by low-end estimates. The parade permit application projected 200,000.
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Morris. Best known for election polling and predictive analytics. Earlier a data journalist for The Economist magazine, editorial director of data analytics for ABC News, and with the FiveThirtyEight project. Author of 2022 book “Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.”
Methodology
To come up with a approximation of No Kings Day numbers, Morris estimated attendance in each unreported protest as equal to the medium of the attendance in places for which there was data. The median, he said was used instead the average to control for outliers, such as the fact that big cities pull the average up but that most events were not in huge urban protests. Morris said he hoped that other researchers would build on his data with more studies.
Protest sponsor’s guesstimate
Ezra Levin, of the grassroots group Indivisible, which helped organize No Kings Day nationally, estimated that 5 million people took part. Some sample estimates from neutral sources:
St. Paul: 25,000
Milwaukee: 12,000
Des Moines: 7,000
Madison: 5,000
Rochester: 3,000
Fargo: 3,000
Brainerd: 2,000
Eau Claire: 2,000
Bismarck: 1,700
Winona: 1,400
Bemidji: 1.000
LaCrosse: 1,000
St. Charles: 50
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