MADISON, Wis. — Western Wisconsin’s two-term delegate to Congress, Derrick Van Orden, should be looking for another line of work, says a Democratic strategist with a granular knowledge of the state’s politics. Ben Wikler, former state Democratic chair, said all six of Wisconsin’s Republican delegates, including Van Orden, are unlikely to win re-election. He based his analysis on trends:

> The election Tuesday of Democrat-backed Chris Taylor to the state Supreme Court by 20 points — a “blowout,” he called it.

> The 2025 election of Democrat-backed Susan Crawford to the state Supreme Court despite a gigantic $25 million campaign cash infusion hy Trump ally Elon Musk.

> Trump dragging down support for Republican candidates everywhere. He pointed to deep public dissatisfaction with Trump policies on tariffs, war and consumer prices.

> Trump had only a slim margin in the 2024 presidential election in Wisconsin — 31,000 votes — so there is little base for his loyalists to build on.

> Trump’s current approval in polls nationally has slipped into the 30% range, a historic low. He has no coat tails

Wikler. Former Wisconsin Democratic chair. Voicing doubts about viability of GOP majority in Wisconsin’s U.S. House membership. This was in an MS NOW interview.

Van Orden. Has shunned news reporters for months. Recognizes vulnerabilities of his unwavering support of Trump. Also  has refused invitations to townhall meetings and honest eyeball-to-eyeball dialogue with Wi-3 constituents.

Baseline heading into Wisconsin mid-terms 

Most Wisconsin’s GOP delegates to the U.S. House, with the exception of Derrick Van Orden, carried their districts by wide margins in 2024. Wikler cites evidence that the GOP preferences in Wisconsin’s six largely rural Congressional districts have been in free fall since 2024. However, as he sees it, delegates from Madison and Milwaukee, both Democrats, are safe for re-election.

Republicans

Derrick Van Orden, Wi3 (Prairie du Chien): Carried his district by 3 points.

Bryan Steil, Wi1 (Janesville): By10 points.

Tony Wied, Wi8 (DePere): By 14 points.

Glen Grothman, Wi6 (Campbellsport): By 22 points.

Scott Fitzgerald, Mn8 Clyman): By 29 points.

Tom Tiffany, WI7 (Hazelburst): By 32 points.

Democrats

Mark Pocan, Wi2 (Madison): By 29 points

Gwen Moore, Wi4 (Milwaukee): By 25 points.