ST. PAUL, Minn. — The southern Minnesota Congressional district appears to be shaping up as a critical battleground for control of the U.S. House. Incumbent Brad Finstad, a Trump loyalist, has received $1.9 million in campaign donations , according to the latest legally required report. So too has his Democratic challenger Jake Johnson, a Rochester school teacher. Well, to be precise, Finstad leads by relatively small change — $34,000. What can be read into the numbers?
> National and state Republican funding-meisters are concerned that Finstad’s support is softening and are shoring up his war chest in attempt to keep the MN-1 Congressional seat as theirs.
> National and state Democratic funding-meisters see Johnson, albeit an underdog against an incumbent, as riding a trend and thus a wise investment for wresting control of the U.S. House from Trump Republicans who hold a bare majority.
Neither party has released the internal polling that guides their decisions on which candidates to whom funnel financial support. There is high-level GOP concern that Trump’s most loyal adherents — Finstad included — as vulnerable. All national polls have Trump with disapproval ratings approaching 70% and dropping. On July 21 the closely watched Cook Political Report rated MN-1 as slipping as a Republican stronghold. The district was downgraded from “solidly Republican” to “likely Republican.”
Finstad. New Ulm farmer . Republican. Elected to Congress in 2022.
Johnson. Rochester school teacher. Democrat. Newcomer as candidate for public office.
Campaign styles
Not lost on prognosticators is that Finstad has limited his campaign to carefully screen small groups and benign settings that avoid being answerable for his Trump allegiance and voting record. His tactic is from the playbook of GOP House re-election leadership that recognizes Trump’s coattails are frayed and indeed a down-ticket liability. Finstad meets only with small screened groups and in benign setting — no townhalls, no news interviews, not even acknowledging inconvenient media queries submitted in writing. Johnson has had an aggressive campaign schedule and hit all 22 MN-1 counties multiple times. His challenges to Finstad for a debate have gone unanswered.
August primary
Finstad and Johnson face only token challengers in the August 11 primary election. Barring unexpected write-in entries, it’s foregone that Finstad and Johnson will win their parties’ ballot lines in the November general election. The August challengers to Finstad are Gregory Goetzman and Oliver Morlan. Neither has done little more than file paperwork to run. Johson has one August challenger, Alex Eaton, who also has limited himself to filing paperwork.
MN-1 history
.Although widely regarded as Republican territory, the largely agricultural MN-1 has sent Democrats to Congress in recent decades. Tim Walz, now Minnesota’s governor, served six germs in the U.S. House beginning in 2007. Tim Penny served six terms beginning in 1983.