MADISON, Wis.—Republican challenger Tim Michels leads Democratic Governor Tony Evers 50% to 47%, according to the latest poll by the American Association of Retired Persons. The poll tapped all likely voters. Both Evers and Michels were heavy favorites by voters in their parties – 97% for Evers among Democrats and 96% for Michels among Republicans. The crucial difference was independent voters, who opted 51% to 44% for Michels. Neither Evans nor Michels has strong favorable ratings. Both were under water — Evers at 46%, Michels at 47%. Polls, to be sure, are only a snapshot in time and there are statistical margins f error. The electorate remains in flux until election day. The closely watched Marquette Poll two weeks earlier showed Evers ahead by three points.