MILWAUKEE, Wis. – The final Marquette Law School Poll before Election Day found likely Wisconsin voters support Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 49% over Republican former President Donald Trump. When initially undecided voters were separated out of the data, Harris led 48% to 47% with 5% undecided. These undecided voters could shift margins either way, which explains the flurry of Harris, Trump, Vance, Walz and surrogate stumping across the state. The Marquette poll was conducted October 16 to October 24. The poll found an urban-rural divide. In principal cities Harris by led by 36 points. In rural areas and small towns Trump led by 23 points.
For U.S. Senate. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Tammy Baldwin held 51% of likely voters against 49% support Eric Hovde. When undecided voters were folded into the data, 7% wereundecided.
Methodology. The Marquette poll interviewed 834 Wisconsin registered voters with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, and 753 likely voters with a margin of error also of 4.4 percentage points. Because voter sentiment is a moving target, the results depend on the dates the data ere collected. Other variables include olls include whether registered voters or likely voters were sample. In statistical sampling there always is a margin of error. Some polls measure third party and independent candidates. Some don’t.
Candidate bravado. Some candidates, notably Trump, claim advantageous margins in their independent polling. This can be bluster Unless a candidate identifies the source, dates, and the population sampled, the claims aren’t worth a grain of salt;
Earlier: New polls agree: Wisconsin in play